Via Duffbert, I just had an interesting read of the transcript from Unify Corp.'s 2008 year-end earnings call.  Unify, as you may recall, is the company whose migration product from Notes to Microsoft, Composer, was aggressively marketed to SearchDomino subscribers from December 2007 until a few months ago.  By our collective reckoning, their mailing went out at least four times to SearchDomino mailing lists.... could have been hundreds of thousands of impressions.

In their earnings transcript, Unify's president, Todd Wille, discusses the success of Composer in the Notes environment (emphasis mine):

In 2008 we started to gain momentum with our Composer migration business. To recap, we closed eight deals for fiscal 2008, for bookings of $1.1 million, and as I said earlier, the eight deals were six pilots and two full-scale migration projects.  ...

We have a total of eleven Composer customers to date.  ...

Today we have eleven final proposals out to customers and of those six are pilots.  ... Out of the six pilot deals we've won since January 1, Microsoft has paid for three of them.
So let's recap:
  • Eleven customers to-date, but eight deals in 2008.  So they came into this year with all of three Composer for Notes customers.
  • Closed eight deals -- two full migrations.  Out of some 65,000 plus Notes customers (actively on maintenance with IBM or otherwise), the success rate is 8/65,000..
  • Six of those were pilots.  Three were paid for by Microsoft, which means that 50% of the time, customers couldn't be convinced to invest on their own.  We don't know if those pilots will become actual migrations or not.
  • They have proposals out for six more pilots and five final proposals (presumably, to five of the six pilot customers), meaning they have introduced the potential to up their customer count to 17.
  • The six pilots and two full-scale deals generated US$1.1 million in revenue.  That means the cost of the migration tool -- not the migration, just the tool and services for the tool -- is in the six-figure range.

This doesn't exactly seem like the groundswell of "everybody's migrating" that the competition likes to portray.  Actually, very little empirical evidence supports that theory.

Putting all this in context of Microsoft's competitive effort is where it really gets interesting.  See, Todd Wille goes on to say that
The Notes-compete initiative continues to be one of the top three corporate initiatives for Microsoft.  ... over the last year, and continuing this upcoming fiscal year, they've got two, three or four key initiatives that really the whole company focuses on in addition to their normal goal setting. And one of those key initiatives is this whole Lotus Notes initiatives ... IBM identified as one of their major competitors, those two reasons have led this to be one of the key initiatives for them as a company last year and this going forward year.  ... And it goes all the way to the top of Microsoft and all the way down, is that this initiative is important and it's funded and that bodes well for us.
Ah yes, Notes Compete.  Entering Microsoft's fiscal 2009, this must be what, the fourth year they are running Notes Compete.  By my own estimation, Microsoft has put $50 million or more into this effort over the last four years.  If we take into consideration investment in business partners, marketing, events, and MS-funded migration services, it's probably even more.

And yet, through it all, Notes revenue has grown for 13 of the last 14 quarters (and for Lotus as a brand, it's 14 of 14).  The installed base of active Notes end-users grew by 10% from 2006 to 2007.  IDC reported that IBM gained share while Microsoft lost share from 2005 to 2006 (their report on 2007 is still not out yet).  The rate of customers deploying Notes/Domino 8 is faster, according to support calls and tracking surveys, than Notes/Domino 7.  Meanwhile, IBM has picked up a bunch of new wins, too.  We've got press releases in development, and some news is already out.  

Have there been customers that have migrated, begun migrating, or attempted migrating from Notes to the Microsoft platform?  Absolutely.  Have they been successful?  Some have.  Have they been able to demonstrate any actual ROI, TCO benefit, or other positive impact on their company's bottom line for doing so?  I still haven't seen that case study.

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