Even if you believe the numbers, it's hard to imagine 33% of a market being "dominance".  Internetnews reports on a press release from Radicati Group claiming that Exchange will grow its market share, due to Lotus's "confusing strategy" and Exchange 2003's, uh, increased scalability.

Rocky Oliver points out some of the problems with this "analysis":

Had this come out as early as a year ago, I may have been inclined to agree with Mr. Nienhuis; however the roadmap put forth by IBM has never been more clear. ...Mr. Nienhuis obviously hasn't talked to current customers lately, nor has he looked at the current roadmap; if he had he would realize that the path for Notes/Domino customers is quite clear, and it does not contain the faintest hint of rip-and-replace.
There have been a few reports like this in the last couple of weeks.  It's like the last gasp of the last round of "Notes is dead" FUD; while mainstream analysts like Gartner, META, Burton, and Ferris have all issued positive reports about Lotus and the Workplace strategy in the last two weeks, it seems some didn't get the message.  Have to wonder if they were paying attention to Lotusphere, press reports from Lotusphere, blogs from Lotusphere, or for that matter, any of the news from the last several months.  Ah well.

Rocky also points out that the analysis is a little contradictory -- as in, how can growth come from this?
[P]eople are going to migrate from an existing messaging and collaborative platform that has a clear upgrade path and a stated long term product life (that, BTW, promises backwards compatability), to a platform that has a muddled future and no discernable roadmap?... Yeah, that sounds like good analysis.

Update: There's also this bit from MessagingPipeline:
When asked to elaborate, Sara Radicati said that she sees IBM/Lotus Workplace as an end-of-life strategy for Notes/Domino. Confronted by strong evidence, including a survey by Messaging Pipeline, and even stronger feelings from the Lotus Notes/Domino community that the product has a long life ahead of it, she said, "I have nothing against those people, I wish them well. But they are wrong."
See Alan Lepofsky's comment to this posting -- who is wrong here, exactly???

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