Is anyone else getting mobile whiplash?
February 17 2010
Sprint 4G mobile router.
Palm Pre.
Nokia N900.
Droid.
Nexus One.
New Blackberry Bold.
iPad.
Windows Mobile 7.
Is anyone else getting mobile whiplash?
It seems like the time horizon for innovation and one-upsmanship in the mobile space is about two weeks. More to the point, each device is introducing genuinely new innovation and leaps forward, not just leapfrog or Moore's law.
I can't remember a time quite like this in hardware. Certainly nobody gets this excited about the latest Dell, HP, and Lenovo laptops.
The rate and pace of change in the handheld device market is indicative of its maturation. It's becoming clearer and clearer that in a short period of time, mobile devices are moving (have moved?) to front and center stage in terms of both raw and, increasingly, preferred computing power. My older daughter occasionally pokes at me for using my Crackberry so much, but as I point out to her, I'm just as likely now to be looking something up on wikipedia for her homework as I am to be reading my corporate email. It's a much, much more all-purpose device.
Honestly, I'm excited but bored at the same time, if that makes any sense. When my Blackberry Bold 9000 started dying a month ago, I didn't hesitate to move along to the next Bold 9700. All those other devices? Sure, interesting, but is one of them going to make that big a difference for me right now?
The life cycle for a handheld phone-based device for me right now is about 15-18 months, max. I am fortunate to be able (usually) to upgrade that fast, but it's also the limits of how rugged these devices are. I know that Bold 9000 wouldn't have made it another six months, or at least I would have ripped the trackball out of it by that point out of frustration.
I admit to a fascination with the rate and pace of what's going on in the mobile space, but am having a hard time challenging myself to think discontinuously about the long-term future. Incremental improvements such as we heard coming out of the World Mobile Congress this week, sure, but the next-big-thing? I'm sure it's out there--heck, at the current market pace, it's probably only two weeks away.
Post a Comment
- 2
Rick Sizemore | 2/18/2010 1:14:34 AM
Well, I'm more excited about the Lenovo U1 than any of the others. I'm thinking of the next laptop and I think a 17 macbook pro (forthcoming one), or one of the other 1080p 17 or 18's with Core i7 as primary. Then something like the U1, iPad (apple drm lock), or one of the other Snapdragon based sub netbooks take over that space of PC'ish functionality. I.E. note taking, media consumption, coach airplane use (you really can't make a PC small enough for that).
But that U1 seems to fill 70+% of those niches, except for the large screen, and it will probably be much cheaper than buying both, especially if two end up being Apple products.
- 3
Volker Weber http://vowe.net | 2/18/2010 4:47:07 AM
Buckle up. It's only the beginning.
- 4
Alan Lepofsky http://www.alanlepofsky.net | 2/18/2010 2:22:49 PM
The most annoying part of the mobile space, is how hard (costs, and term lengths) carriers make for you to get the latest and greatest device. I'd love to have both an iPhone and the newest Blackberry, but that is next to impossible here.
- 5
Michael Kobrowski | 2/18/2010 3:05:04 PM
I am with VoWe - I think this might just be the beginning because of this: { Link } 5 billion cell phones!!! for 6.8 billion ppl?
Unless we get a strong solar flare ;-)
{ Link }
- 6
David - the Notes guy in Seattle | 2/18/2010 3:19:41 PM
It's enough to make me want to take another month-long trip in the Grand Canyon. Even satellite phones have trouble there and solar showers are considered high tech. It feels good to live unplugged now and then.
- 7
Richard | 2/18/2010 5:40:06 PM
Luckily my telcom provider will be putting the lastest HTC Android phone on one of their plans. Think I may upgrade to one of those and bypass the iPhone (iZombies are everywhere in Australia)
- 8
Craig Wiseman http://www.Wiseman.La/cpw | 2/19/2010 5:31:21 PM
It is just the beginning. Which is why it's insane to try and write Traveler software for every platform, esp. when all of them (outside of BB) support activesync.
- 9
Dave Harris http://www.wavysworld.com | 2/22/2010 1:05:21 PM
I generally only upgrade when either my or my wife's phone is failing (or one of the kids drops hers in the soup). So given my e63's only about 6 months old, it's going to be at least a couple of years before it gets upgraded.
Fortunately, in Malaysia, you buy your handset and plan totally separately; my e63 cost me RM850 (about US$250) & I'm on a postpaid plan for the first time, which includes unlimited non-roaming data (using it now).
So while you, Ed, might recycle at 15-18 months, other people take twice that, driven by need. Conversely, others change on a 6 month cycle, as soon as the new "ooh, shiny" comes out.
From the software pov, Traveler was a major factor in my decision for the e63. I probably would have stayed with Nokia for a replacement anyway, but the prospect of a qwerty phone that supports Domino for free was too good to turn down - it had to be an affordable Symbian60, especially given that mobile email is *so* not approved of in my company, internally; I'm only using Traveler for my personal email. Mobile Sametime works like a dream, btw, even though I can't have work and BY going at the same time (pls excuse the pun).
Ed, what's the thinking given Nokia's tie-up with Intel regarding turning Maemo & Moblin into Meego? Will it be supported? Especially with what appears to be an uncerain future for Symbian 3 { Link }
In summary, I think it's going to be a while before the handset takes over from the laptop as the primary device, although the convergence is getting stronger.
- 10
Shivam Khullar http://blogs.perficient.com/communications/ | 2/23/2010 11:13:22 AM
Very true Ed. But what do you think about the growing anxiety amongst the consumers ? I think the pace at which these phones/multi tasking devices are hitting the market -it is confusing from a consumer view point. How do I know if the Droid that was released two weeks prior to Nexus One.. is better or worse ? This fast pace forces the consumer to research and then buy the product that meets their needs - It was quite simple before this trend started. Do techologies simplify life after all ?
- 11
Pat Egen http://www.egenconsulting.com | 3/13/2010 10:55:01 AM
New phones hitting the streets is going to be the norm. The trick is to try to stay within a platform so all your apps continue to work. I have been a Palm and Easysync user for years and just made the plunge to the Android space. Culture shock is an understatement but this best fit what I needed from a business perspective. I have clients moving from Blackberry devices and looking for something iphone-like but better suited for the business world.
I met several iPhone engineers (btw - highest age was 24) and they didn't understand why a business person would want access to the calendar for modifications or other business apps. They said, afterall, "it was made for the consumer space." Because of that I chose to go towards Androids based on an OS that I hope to see grow rather than shrink.
I'm watching carefully for when Traveler supports Androids. This is what I am seeing my clients ask for in growing numbers. Blackberry usage, at least in my world, is starting to slack off. People want the cool apps, the fast internet connection, etc. They want the iPhone but with a business feel. Androids can fit that mold.
So, will there be new phones coming? Always. I like others choose to jump ship only when it makes sense or as just happened, my loyal and trusty Treo 680 bites the dust. Now, if I can just figure out how to get my Lotus Journal there I'd be a happy camper.
It is fun to watch. A few years form now, when things shake out a little, we'll look back and say "of course, I remember when that was happening". That's now.
I think the "Big iPod Touch" is going to rock the world. And it will do that due to killer apps.
Dell and HP....they're still around ;-?