New, old tactic -- commit to the future

June 7 2006

In the last week or ten days, I've been bombarded by requests from customers to provide the "Domino roadmap".  And when something happens that often in that short of a period of time, one can guess where it's coming from -- the competition.  "Ask Lotus whether you'll be able to run Domino in five years", or "aren't they just going to move to a WebSphere architecture after the next release?" ... stuff like that.  

This is a silly game, and it bores me to play it.  Notes and Domino have a sixteen+ year track record, and in the last five, that track record has been very accurate in terms of the promise and the delivery.  Yeah, there was the "Garnet" thing, which I'll hear about at my funeral, but other than that, the features that have been promised have shipped; the release dates have been on-target; the next releases have been publicly announced; and the cycle has predictibly continued every 18-24 months.  The 2007 release -- Notes "Hannover" and Domino "Next" -- have been publicly disclosed, demonstrated, and discussed.  In both client and server cases, indications have been made by the executives at Lotus that there are releases beyond that.  For example, Domino 64-bit support -- Kevin Cavanaugh said at Lotusphere '06 that this would be in beta by Domino "Next" and ship after that.  So there's a specific and measurable commitment to a feature release after "Next".  There are plenty of other examples.

The resources I'm pointing my colleagues to when they ask me about this:


and there are plenty of other resources.

What seems especially ironic about being attacked about the Notes/Domino roadmap is that the emperor has no clothes.  What's the comparative track record for Microsoft? And this is all just the Exchange roadmap -- I won't get into Vista, WinFS, "Yukon", etc.

The last thought is on predicting the future in this business.  Three years ago, I couldn't spell S-O-A...now it's one of the most important concepts I'm talking about with customers on a daily basis.  Three years before that, nobody would have predicted spam and compliance to be big issues for messaging.  The software industry moves too fast.  While I can definitely tell you that there are commited plans, and even work going on, for Notes/Domino releases past "Hannover"/"Next", nobody in this industry tries to make bets on specific features or capabilities this far out.  Thus, what we have to stand on as vendors is our past track record.  And the Notes/Domino track record has been one of consistent delivery, evolution without rip-and-replace, innovation, and deployability.  I think I can stand on that -- no need to be defensive.

Ed Brill | Highland Park, IL USA Category:  Lotus  Add/View Comments [27]

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  1. 1  Anonymous  | 6/7/2006 2:57:38 PM

    This is perhaps the best post you have ever made. Bravo!

  1. 2  Charles Robinson  | 6/7/2006 3:12:27 PM

    Ed, as I read this I happened to have Fort Minor's song "High Road" on my headphones { Link }

    The lyrics are a little explicit, but it seems rather appropriate. :) In case you think you recognize the voice, Fort Minor is a side project of Mike Shinoda from Linkin Park.

    Oh, I would like to point out that you forgot the "two lane highway" announcement, too. Can't let that one die, could we?

  1. 3  Ed Brill www.edbrill.com | 6/7/2006 3:39:48 PM

    @2 although the interesting thing about the "two lane highway" is that it was a clear commitment to continuing to develop Notes and Domino in one "lane". The metaphor doesn't work anymore and the product plan has "clarified" (changed), but it was always the plan to continue Notes/Domino updates.

  1. 4  Keith Brooks www.keithbrooks.com | 6/7/2006 4:18:03 PM

    For years we had our roadmap and Microsoft had theirs.

    As you point out, the potholes in the MS highway really cause headaches, but that doesn't stop anyone from taking on Exchange. Migrating your whole infrastructure to Windows Server 2003 or Vista should be the decision maker. Money is the key.

    Remind the customer about the money lost (no one cares about savings as much as losses) because of their need to go to a new version of everything.

    The real question from these clients is most likely FUD from MS.

    The truth is you can point to any of the documentation from MS Mail to Exchange/Outlook Beta where they tell you the files will be migrated to the new format and not usable in previous editions.

    Try to find a similar line in Notes/Domino documentation.

  1. 5  Jack Dausman http://www.leadershipbynumbers.com | 6/7/2006 6:03:19 PM

    Thanks. These reviews are always helpful encapsulations to hand to customers. Personally, I think the long series of trade-journal reviews should be included--some of their comments are quite pointed. You know that if Infoworld had made the following comment about Exchange, and not Domino R7, then it would have been posted on every billboard: "This makes a convincing upgrade argument for existing customers -- and a sound reason for considering a switch from other solutions."

  1. 6  Alan Lepofsky http://www.alanlepofsky.net | 6/7/2006 7:06:32 PM

    I like to point customers to 3 recent Domino reviews:

    InfoWorld { Link }

    eWeek { Link }

    Government Computer News { Link }

    and then finish up by mentioning Hannover, ST 7.5, Lotus Notes 7.0.2 running on a USB thumb drive for the ultimate portable experience, the new Notes & SAP Integration, and the recent announcments between Lotus and RIM. That's a lot of good news!

  1. 7  Chris Reckling http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/InsideLotus | 6/7/2006 10:05:02 PM

    Unfortunately, we have to be ever vigilant -> check out the FUD in this one:

    { Link }

    Chris

  1. 8  Danny Lawrence  | 6/7/2006 11:01:10 PM

    Doesn't this bode ill for Exchange 12? Correct me if I'm wrong Ed, but whenever we see one of these sorts of "pushes" from MSFT, it is because they are having problems delivering Exchange "next" (or otherwise getting Exchange to sell).

  1. 9  Andrew Price www.healthspace.ca | 6/7/2006 11:44:16 PM

    @6 Nice, thx Alan.

    @Ed: "Yeah, there was the "Garnet" thing, which I'll hear about at my funeral,..."

    LOL, sry Ed. <Sheepish>

  1. 10  Richard Schwartz http://www.rhs.com/poweroftheschwartz | 6/8/2006 12:29:45 AM

    I'll make one prediction for the future, Ed, because IBM is showing it now: Activity Centric computing, fully integrated into the Notes client in Hannoever. In the last 18 months it has moved from research to product. Customer adoption will take off over the next three years, and from that point forward the ability to seamlessly merge messaging and collaboration into coherent activities for customers will be a cornerstone of Notes and Domino's preent ande future. Sure, it's hard to say what specific new roads will emerge on the map related to activity-centric computing, but they're going to be there, they're going to be important, and nobody else is showing anything that offers customers a map with roads going anywhere near that direction.

  1. 11  Darren http://www.dadams.co.uk | 6/8/2006 2:08:46 AM

    @10 - couldn't agree more, and if you read this { Link } it would seem to suggest that the world is getting ready to move on from e-mail as we know it. I brief a lot of customers, and Activities is one of the topics that really sparks the interest. Another example of Lotus (sorry, IBM) innovation. Look at Outlook 12 / 2007 / whatever... looks like more of the same to me (but it has a new toolbar, so that's gotta be worth the upgrade).

  1. 12  Axel  | 6/8/2006 2:16:33 AM

    I do like this one:

    predictions are very hard. Especially when they are about the future.

    I find the term "roadmap" itself a bit misleading if used in the context of future of a certain technology.

    A map about the future can never be as reliable as for example a map about the roads in and around Munich.

    What do those people expect?

  1. 13  Darren http://www.dadams.co.uk | 6/8/2006 3:05:03 AM

    @12 - or a map about the roads in and around Hannover? ;o)

  1. 14  Nathan T. Freeman  | 6/8/2006 3:05:11 AM

    "Remind the customer about the money lost (no one cares about savings as much as losses) because of their need to go to a new version of everything."

    Ummm... econ 101. Money that could have been saved but wasn't is exactly the same thing as a loss. There is no difference. And anyone in a corporate decision making position that doesn't understand that is just scary.

  1. 15  R. J. Lesch http://www.rhs.com/thenewblack | 6/8/2006 10:19:28 AM

    In my company:

    - number of people who go to Lotusphere: 2

    - number of people who go to .NET equivalent: about 6

    Right there, it's clear the .NETsters attend three times more meetings than we do, have three times the opportunity to get the managers' ears, etc.

    Curious whether folks at other companies have the same issue.

  1. 16  Charles Robinson  | 6/8/2006 10:32:53 AM

    @15 - I'm curious how attending a vendor-sponsored event leads to "the opportunity to get the managers' ears".

  1. 17  Mike Wissinger  | 6/8/2006 10:38:13 AM

    @15 - Absolutely.

    I've had a number of clients where Domino's position in the minds of management has been damaged by its success. If it only takes one half-time person to manage an environment supporting hundreds or thousands of users, there aren't internal cheerleaders to push for upgrades, rave about new features, or collect attaboys. The ROI is amazing, but you only notice if the decission makers are sharp enough to look for it.

    The competition, on the other hand, usually needs a couple administrators and several full-time developers to deliver anything approaching equivalent value. Microsoft does a fine job of evangelizing its techies, hoping to turn them into agents of change that drive further sales. Their people always have a solution, and are able to present it as the default choice. If management isn't aware of other options (or isn't shown the other options' clear advantages) it's easy for them to make that decission.

    This is especially true, in my experience, for growing businesses who might be looking at enterprise software for the first time. They haven't got a lot of connections to peers in other businesses, and haven't shown up on the big vendors' (or even business partners') radar yet. They know that they have windows at home, and assume that anything else is too big/expensive/scary/complex for what they need.

    I suspect that many of the shops that are still using exchange 5 are in this category. They know that a forced migration just to upgrade their email server isn't worthwhile, but the folks who can help them move up don't know where to find them. Nor do they know where to look or what their options are.

  1. 18  Samuel deHuszar Allen  | 6/8/2006 1:06:13 PM

    I think it can equally be said that there are a lot of up and coming small businesses who no longer trust Microsoft and are moving to Linux / Open-Source based groupware and / or Notes and Domino.

    I for one fall in that category, and many of my small business friends have all moved to Mac & Linux, with only one or two Windows installs for testing and troubleshooting.

    Granted, that's not the majority of big businesses (though outside the US, it's definitely on the rise), but as I've said several times on this site, why waste your time marketing to 1 business with 10,000 employees that everyone is trying to squeeze a few bucks out of due to their size and finances, when there are 1000's of businesses with 100 or less employees who NO ONE IS PAYING ATTENTION TO!!!!

    There's a lot more money in small businesses than big ones these days, because small businesses are looking for tools to help them grow, whereas big businesses are mostly slowing spending to keep from hemorrhaging.

  1. 19  Charles Robinson  | 6/8/2006 4:21:24 PM

    @17/15 - Okay, so you're talking about the number of staff, not specifically attending Lotusphere or the equivalent Microsoft event/

  1. 20  David Vasta david.davidandkelly.com | 6/8/2006 9:22:14 PM

    Good Post Ed! Super Job!

    I would have to say it. I had an Exchange 5.5 Env and upgraded it to 2000 and Bamm! Broken. Needed over 7 hours of Microsoft Support to get it running. It was a normal 5.5 install with about 150 users.

    Same Install now running 2000 and moved it to 2003 and guess what Bamm....Blew up again. Over 26 hours of help from Microsoft and they tried to blame the hardware. I was a consultant then and didn't mind that much.

    I have moved Domino Server from 4.5 --> R5 ----> R6 ---> R7.0.1 in the same weekend and nothing went wrong in fact I have never had a Domino upgrade blow up on a normal mail server avg 500-700 users.

    I think the track record is great, I think the upgrade paths are great and I think my past with Exchange is what you read. Just plain bad and the last Server release was over 3 years ago and the next release is going to "brand new" and like no one has ever seen, which means no one will be able to admin it out of the box without some Microsoft Education.

    Good luck with your Exchange solution and hats off to Lotus for always getting product to the market on time with few problems and ready for prime time corporate messaging services.

    -David

  1. 21  R. J. Lesch http://www.rhs.com/thenewblack | 6/9/2006 10:55:04 AM

    @16, @19: Let me put it this way: whenever Microsoft puts out a message like the ones Ed quotes in his post, we have people here who will repeat that same bit of FUD around the office or in staff meetings. If I happen to be in the same meeting I can clarify, but a) I'm probably outnumbered, and b) I don't go to every meeting in the department (thank Providence) so a lot of times the statement goes unchallenged.

    Recent example: the "aren't they just going to move to a WebSphere architecture after the next release" bit Ed mentioned above. I've had this come up several times from Microsycophants in the past several months.

    So where do they get these messages? Something in the drinking water?

  1. 22  Jerome Choteau http://www.ytria.com | 6/9/2006 2:18:55 PM

    Hi Ed,

    Thank you for giving me more arguments.

    I'm in contact with customers on a daily basis (mainly Notes developers and administrators, as we develop tools for them), and I usually have, at least 4 or 5 people each week, who ask me about Domino's future. I always tell them that Domino is ALIVE!

    And posts like this one, or Rocky's ({ Link }

    or Alan's ({ Link } etc... inspire me a lot.

    It seems that people still need to be convinced that Domino won't go away! Despite what some people want us to believe

    (refer to @6 'The Redmond giant has made converting holdouts from Notes to Exchange its mission in life' maybe the giant should use all its energy on its products development).

    Thank you again for the great post.

  1. 23  Graham Chastney http://oak-grove.typepad.com | 6/13/2006 3:58:53 AM

    It seems to me Ed, that the issue here is that people aren't hearing the story 'notes is alive'. I would love to hear more 'notes is alive' information. It wasn't just Microsoft that gave them the impression that Notes didn't have a future, IBM had a part to play in that too and now you need to work doubly hard to change that perception. So how about more 'notes is alive' rather than 'Microsoft have problems'.

  1. 24  Charles Robinson  | 6/14/2006 1:40:38 PM

    @21 - There have been direct statements from IBM'ers that Domino and Websphere will merge "down the road". Even if that were not the case there is a messaging and collaboration platform running on Websphere and all I ever hear from IBM is how Workplace is going to save the world. How could the writing on the wall be any clearer?

  1. 25  Ed Brill www.edbrill.com | 6/14/2006 2:05:59 PM

    Domino and WebSphere will merge down the road? Don't think I or anyone else has said that. WebSphere is a brand, not a product. There is no plan to merge Domino and WebSphere Application Server, other than the existing JSP Servlet engine entitlement that started with Domino 6. There are plans in Domino "Next" to integrate WebSphere Portal capabilities and management into Domino, though I would not characterize those plans as a "merge" of these products.

  1. 26  Charles Robinson  | 6/15/2006 10:25:03 AM

    Ed, I know Websphere is a brand, but you also know what I mean. The direction I mention was very clearly laid out in the JMP 205 session at Lotusphere 2006. To quote the presenter, "Domino and WCS servers will be unified after Hannover." That may not be applicable now, but it was clearly articulated just 6 months ago. You and I have had this discussion a couple of times and I'm sure you're sick of it by now so I'm going to leave it at that. I'll just wait and see how it unfolds.

  1. 27  Markus Bachmann  | 7/4/2006 5:42:26 AM

    Hi Ed

    "This is a silly game, and it bores me to play it." This is your statement.

    I was a Technical Pre-Sales at IBM and moved over to Microsoft one year ago. We had an interesting discussion at LotusPhere 2005 in Orlando.

    To be honest: The Roadmap IBM has communicated was unclear for a long time. Shooting against Exchange's Roadmap is okay as long as you have your own roadmap and communication under control...

    Best regards from the other side :-)