Two cloudy crystal ball reports

January 6 2005

A couple of links have been sent my way in the last couple of days that are worth a comment --
SearchWin2000, IT's 2004 winners and losers:

It's that time of year again. The time of year when we look back and, in our infinite wisdom, judge other people and companies based on their failings and successes.
We'll start with the losers.
...
Domino (or is it Radicati?) -- Never one to speak softly when it comes to the subject of Domino, the Radicati Group published a report that said Domino's install base was eroding and Lotus had an end-of-life strategy for the platform. The report sparked outrage among the Domino user community, analysts and Lotus, which questioned Radicati's research methods, charging the report was Microsoft sponsored.
and then there's Techworld: Messaging still to solve security headaches:
IBM Lotus will see a continuing decline in its market share after a poor performance in the last 12 months, leaving Microsoft to control the market. The report summary was non-committal about the prospects for open source and independent email packages but sees this segment of the market making modest inroads into Microsoft's dominance.
OK, so as you all know, public comment on IBM's financials is a firing offense, especially in the "quiet period" before earnings are announced.  But that in and of itself is the point -- since IBM hasn't reported Q4/annual financials, how can anyone other than my team and management in IBM say with any confidence how Lotus Notes/Domino performed in '04?

Let's just say this, which is what I said to a business partner who asked me about the second report last night: I'm pretty comfortable that I'll be able to buy a round or two of sushi at Kimono's during Lotusphere, and that I'll have specific and concrete evidence in my Lotusphere presentation.

Ed Brill Highland Park, IL USA Category:  Lotus  Add/View Comments [7]

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  1. 1  mugadafino  | 1/6/2005 3:58:02 PM

    I prefer the spicy salmon rolls.. thanks..

  1. 2  Dave Harris www.wavysworld.com | 1/7/2005 12:41:23 AM

    That would be a Radicati report that Techworld talk about, then

    Plus ça change...

  1. 3  Ben Rose http://blog.jaffacake.net | 1/7/2005 4:31:04 AM

    Not much room for discussion here, obviously, but I'll pick up on one thing

    "The report summary was non-committal about the prospects for open source and independent email packages but sees this segment of the market making modest inroads into Microsoft's dominance"

    This created a thought bubble over my head of open sourcing the Notes client. No doubt this would see the code being ported to platforms of choice like Linux...addition of features like skins which would improve the UI and other stuff. We'd still need domino servers which would still need licensing and CAL's so the pricing could remain relatively unaffected.

    Just me thinking out loud...

  1. 4  Michael  | 1/7/2005 6:07:19 AM

    Skin support was there in ND6 beta but "dropped"...I think finishing it and introduce ND7 with a "modern" skin would be cool...

  1. 5  Philip Storry  | 1/11/2005 8:31:43 AM

    C'mon, Ed - you can tell me!

    It's not like I have a blog I can put it on or anything...

    *sniggers*

  1. 6  Steve Bryant www.outlookexchange.com | 1/13/2005 10:11:19 AM

    Ed,

    The "experts" never seem to get it right I think. I will say, however that I am confused about the IBM financial report for Q3 2004. It says this:

    "and revenues for Lotus software, which enables customers to communicate, collaborate and learn effectively, decreased 6 percent"

    ...and another report from the IBM site indicates that while Websphere sales are up, the increases are offset by a lower demand for the other Notes branded software.

    I am an "Exchange" guy by trade and could not tell you Microsoft's financial numbers on Exchange (although I am terribly interested) but I am curious as to how IBM groups products under the Lotus name. Are the financials referring to another suite of products?

    I heartedly enjoy your blog even though I disagree with most of it. Clearly, yours is the loudest voice in the messaging community and people tune it!

  1. 7  Ed Brill www.edbrill.com | 1/13/2005 10:31:37 AM

    Good questions, Steve --

    Lotus brand financials include Notes/Domino, Quickplace, Sametime, Domino Document Manager, etc. So it's more than just Notes/Domino.

    We're in the quiet period so I can't yet comment on Q4 numbers, though I expect there will be a lot of noise about them at Lotusphere in ten days.